Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $70,314$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,691.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(61,691.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,850$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,632.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,632.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,866$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $307,251$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{289,362.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.5)}}\) (asimptote \(289,362.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46,295$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,107.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(44,107.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $259,511$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $297,054$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(9.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{248,935.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(248,935.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,472$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,857.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(27,857.7\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $118,206$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $248,229$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(8.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,427.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,427.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,166$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,376.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,376.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,474$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $81,012$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,465.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(91,465.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,744$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,562.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,562.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $75,268$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $225,198$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(6.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199,677.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(199,677.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,268$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,402.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,402.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $113,166$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $55,786$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,072.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(50,072.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,169$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,080.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,080.1\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,410$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,208$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(8.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(78.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,375.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(25,375.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,763$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(551 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,716.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,716.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,081$ on 2020-08-03