Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,314$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,691.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(61,691.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,850$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,632.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,632.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,866$ on 2020-08-03

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $307,251$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(7.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{289,362.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.5)}}\) (asimptote \(289,362.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46,295$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,107.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(44,107.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $259,511$ on 2020-08-03

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $297,054$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(9.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{248,935.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(248,935.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,472$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,857.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(27,857.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $118,206$ on 2020-08-03

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $248,229$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(8.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,427.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,427.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,166$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,376.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,376.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,474$ on 2020-08-03

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,012$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,465.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(91,465.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,744$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,562.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,562.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75,268$ on 2020-08-03

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $225,198$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(6.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199,677.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(199,677.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,268$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,402.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,402.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $113,166$ on 2020-08-03

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,786$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,072.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(50,072.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,169$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,080.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,080.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,410$ on 2020-08-03

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,208$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(8.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(78.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,375.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(25,375.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,763$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(551 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,716.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,716.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,081$ on 2020-08-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Belarus recovered 82%
Portugal recovered 47%
Armenia recovered 30%
Russia recovered 23%
North Macedonia recovered 13%

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,166$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(9.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,404.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 72.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67,404.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $571$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(70 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{633.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 77.3)}}\) (asimptote \(633.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,652$ on 2020-08-03

Portugal⮸

Population $10,196,709$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $51,569$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,279.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 65.4)}}\) (asimptote \(50,279.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,738$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(548 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,638.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,638.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,720$ on 2020-08-03

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,102$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,115.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 104.2)}}\) (asimptote \(43,115.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $762$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(30.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{851.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 95.7)}}\) (asimptote \(851.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,479$ on 2020-08-03

Russia⮸

Population $145,934,462$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $854,641$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(8.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{841,066.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 78.0)}}\) (asimptote \(841,066.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,183$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,243.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 80.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,243.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $188,086$ on 2020-08-03